CA-50: Bilbray Under 50 in Dueling Polls

Was the Goreacle onto something?

Two new polls were released last night showing GOP Rep. Brian Bilbray under 50% in his race against Democrat Nick Leibham.

First, Greenberg Quinlan Rosner for Nick Leibham (10/13-14, likely voters, 4/24-27 in parens):

Nick Leibham (D): 42 (34)

Brian Bilbray (R-inc): 44 (52)

(MoE: ±4.9%)

And here’s The Tarrance Group for Brian Bilbray (10/12-13, likely voters):

Nick Leibham (D): 35

Brian Bilbray (R-inc): 48

(MoE: ±5.7%)

Those are two different snapshots, to be sure, but the fact that Bilbray isn’t cracking 50% in his own poll tells me that this race might get interesting. Leibham has been pounding Bilbray on the airwaves for weeks now, first comparing him to Paris Hilton, and more recently hitting him hard against his vote against the new G.I. Bill.

This race, which burned us in 2006, always seemed like a bit of long shot, but Leibham is beginning to make some serious noise. Keep your eyes on this one just in case Bilbray suffers a wipe out.